Improved Local Economy Can't Offset Fear of Global and Statewide Uncertainty
The University of San Diego local index of leading economic indicators paints a rosy picture of the economic outlook. Similarly, local jobs increased, particularly in the seasonal growth in hospitality and tourism. But, growth in unemployment, more people filing for unemployment for the first time, fewer temporary jobs available, fewer job postings, and a drop in consumer confidence have dampened enthusiasm about the job market. The San Diego Workforce Index had a post-recession high of 86.26 in November, 2011. Since that time, the Index has stalled. March, 2012’s Index number is 84.79. This number is still 1.55% higher than March of 2011, but 2012 has not been as strong a job market as predicted with five of the seven indicators showing negative signs. "The economic crisis in Europe seems to have re-triggered a ‘wait and see’ attitude among employers," commented Chuck Flacks, Research Director at the San Diego Workforce Partnership. "I also think that the continuing budget crises at the state and national levels have people wondering whether our economy is strong enough to weather future storms. Employers may fear taking a risk hiring amidst this uncertainty," he said.
The Index is a compilation of a range of economic indicators that provide a month-to-month record of the status of the workforce in San Diego County. A reading of 100 indicates “full employment” where the labor market is in equilibrium. A reading greater than 100 might indicate a shortage of workers or an overheated economy. A reading of less than 100 would indicate a slowdown in the local economy and might reflect a shortage of employment opportunities.
For more information on the Workforce Index please contact Research Director Chuck Flacks chuckflacksworkforce [dot] org.